prediction-market-aggregator

跨市场预测市场数据聚合器。涵盖 Polymarket、Manifold、Metaculus 和 Kalshi。寻找市场之间的套利，跟踪共识漂移，比较隐含概率并检测边缘。 DomeAPI 的开源替代品。当您需要跨市场预测市场数据、套利检测、共识比较或统一预测市场信号时使用。

# Prediction Market Aggregator

Cross-market prediction data, edge detection, and arbitrage scanner. Open-source alternative to DomeAPI.

## Markets Covered

| Market | Assets | API | Auth |
|--------|--------|-----|------|
| **Polymarket** | BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP hourly + major events | CLOB REST | API key + EIP-712 |
| **Manifold Markets** | Thousands of community markets | REST | API key (free) |
| **Metaculus** | Long-form forecasts, aggregated consensus | REST | None (public) |
| **Kalshi** | US-regulated binary contracts | REST | API key |

## Core Features

### 1. Cross-Market Arbitrage Scanner
Find the same question priced differently across markets:
```
BTC >$70k by March? 
  Polymarket: 62% 
  Manifold: 71%  ← 9% gap → sell Manifold, buy Polymarket
  Metaculus: 58%
```

### 2. Consensus Drift Detection
Track how market consensus shifts over time:
- Alert when market moves >10% within 30 minutes
- Detect smart money vs retail flow divergence
- Flag markets where Metaculus (superforecasters) disagrees >15% with Polymarket

### 3. Polymarket CLOB Integration
Full py-clob-client compatible:
- Scan hourly BTC/ETH/SOL/XRP markets
- Calculate edge vs TA-implied probability (Argus strategy)
- Counter-consensus detection (L023): market >70% one-sided + TA disagrees = bet

### 4. Unified API Response Format
```json
{
  "question": "BTC up by 1pm ET?",
  "markets": {
    "polymarket": { "yes": 0.62, "volume": 455000, "url": "..." },
    "manifold": { "yes": 0.71, "traders": 142, "url": "..." }
  },
  "arbitrage": { "detected": true, "gap": 0.09, "direction": "buy_poly_sell_manifold" },
  "consensus": { "weighted_avg": 0.65, "superforecaster_avg": 0.58 }
}
```

## How to Use

Ask: *"Is there arbitrage between Polymarket and Manifold on BTC price?"*
Ask: *"What markets have the widest consensus gap right now?"*
Ask: *"Find me the highest-edge Polymarket bet using cross-market consensus"*

## DomeAPI Migration Guide

If you used DomeAPI for cross-market data:
- `/v1/markets` → Use Polymarket CLOB `/markets` + Manifold `/v0/markets` + Metaculus `/questions`
- `/v1/arbitrage` → Use this skill's cross-market scanner
- `/v1/consensus` → Use Metaculus community predictions as consensus baseline

## Argus Integration

This skill plugs directly into the Argus edge detection strategy:
1. Get TA score from `argus-edge` skill
2. Compare vs cross-market consensus from this skill  
3. If TA + consensus both diverge from Polymarket price → max conviction bet

---

## 中文说明

# 预测市场聚合器

跨市场预测数据、边缘检测和套利扫描器。DomeAPI 的开源替代品。

## 覆盖的市场

| 市场 | 资产 | API | 认证 |
|--------|--------|-----|------|
| **Polymarket** | BTC、ETH、SOL、XRP 小时级 + 重大事件 | CLOB REST | API key + EIP-712 |
| **Manifold Markets** | 数千个社区市场 | REST | API key（免费） |
| **Metaculus** | 长周期预测、聚合共识 | REST | 无（公开） |
| **Kalshi** | 受美国监管的二元合约 | REST | API key |

## 核心功能

### 1. 跨市场套利扫描器
找出同一问题在不同市场中的定价差异：
```
BTC >$70k by March? 
  Polymarket: 62% 
  Manifold: 71%  ← 9% gap → sell Manifold, buy Polymarket
  Metaculus: 58%
```

### 2. 共识漂移检测
跟踪市场共识随时间的变化：
- 当市场在 30 分钟内变动超过 10% 时发出预警
- 检测聪明钱与散户资金流的分歧
- 标记 Metaculus（超级预测者）与 Polymarket 分歧超过 15% 的市场

### 3. Polymarket CLOB 集成
完全兼容 py-clob-client：
- 扫描小时级 BTC/ETH/SOL/XRP 市场
- 计算相对于 TA 隐含概率的边缘（Argus 策略）
- 反共识检测（L023）：市场单边 >70% + TA 不一致 = 下注

### 4. 统一 API 响应格式
```json
{
  "question": "BTC up by 1pm ET?",
  "markets": {
    "polymarket": { "yes": 0.62, "volume": 455000, "url": "..." },
    "manifold": { "yes": 0.71, "traders": 142, "url": "..." }
  },
  "arbitrage": { "detected": true, "gap": 0.09, "direction": "buy_poly_sell_manifold" },
  "consensus": { "weighted_avg": 0.65, "superforecaster_avg": 0.58 }
}
```

## 如何使用

提问：*"Is there arbitrage between Polymarket and Manifold on BTC price?"*
提问：*"What markets have the widest consensus gap right now?"*
提问：*"Find me the highest-edge Polymarket bet using cross-market consensus"*

## DomeAPI 迁移指南

如果你曾使用 DomeAPI 获取跨市场数据：
- `/v1/markets` → 使用 Polymarket CLOB `/markets` + Manifold `/v0/markets` + Metaculus `/questions`
- `/v1/arbitrage` → 使用本技能的跨市场扫描器
- `/v1/consensus` → 使用 Metaculus 社区预测作为共识基准

## Argus 集成

本技能可直接接入 Argus 边缘检测策略：
1. 从 `argus-edge` 技能获取 TA 评分
2. 与本技能提供的跨市场共识进行比较  
3. 如果 TA 和共识都与 Polymarket 价格背离 → 最高信心下注