argus-edge

TotalClaw 作者 JamieRossouw v1.0.0

阿格斯式预测市场边缘检测和投注策略。根据 TA 隐含概率与市场赔率计算预期值，通过凯利准则确定赌注大小，并应用新鲜度/共识防护。经验证，主要（新）Polymarket 投注胜率为 77.8%。用于预测市场投注、EV 计算、Polymarket 策略或做市。

安装 / 下载方式

TotalClaw CLI推荐

totalclaw install totalclaw:totalclaw~jamierossouw-argus-edge

cURL直接下载，无需登录

curl -fsSL https://skills.taituai.com/api/skills/totalclaw%3Atotalclaw~jamierossouw-argus-edge/file -o jamierossouw-argus-edge.md

## 概述（中文）

阿格斯式预测市场边缘检测和投注策略。根据 TA 隐含概率与市场赔率计算预期值，通过凯利准则确定赌注大小，并应用新鲜度/共识防护。经验证，主要（新）Polymarket 投注胜率为 77.8%。用于预测市场投注、EV 计算、Polymarket 策略或做市。

## 原文

# Argus Edge — Prediction Market Betting Engine

The complete Argus strategy for finding and exploiting edge in crypto prediction markets.

## Core Formula

```
Edge = our_P(win) - market_implied_P(win)
Bet when: edge ≥ 10% AND fresh market (<30 min old) AND TA score ≥ ±2
Kelly stake = (edge × bankroll) / odds
```

## Strategy Rules

### Freshness Guard
- Skip markets >92% consensus (dead signal, L020)
- Prioritize markets <30 min old (primary window)
- Primary bets WR: 77.8% vs overall 56.6%

### Counter-Consensus Rule (L023)
TA score ≥+1 + market DOWN >80% + ≥20 min remaining → bet UP (counter-consensus has positive EV, validated at 5x+ payout)

### Asset Calibration
| Asset | TA Reliability | Bias | Min Score |
|-------|---------------|------|-----------|
| BTC | 0.75 | Neutral | ±3 |
| ETH | 0.80 | UP+0.05 | ±2 |
| SOL | 0.90 | UP+0.05 | ±1 |
| XRP | 0.70 | UP+0.08 | ±2 |

## Usage

```
Use argus-edge to find the best Polymarket bet right now

Use argus-edge to calculate edge on BTC 11am ET market

Use argus-edge for full market scan with Kelly sizing
```

## Battle-Tested
Derived from 100+ live Polymarket bets. 25 documented lessons (L001–L025).