new-visitor-cold-start

通过基于行为的个性化来转化首次商店访客 — 浏览路径 → 偏好细分 → 匹配的一阶激励 → 弹出时间（包括退出意图）。当用户希望为新访客提供冷启动优惠、与他们查看的内容相关的首次购买优惠券、退出意图或定时模式，或者在电子邮件捕获之前引入匿名流量时使用。内置步骤：监控路径、对偏好进行分类、匹配一阶优惠券或礼物、设置触发器（退出意图和替代方案）。请勿仅用于赢回现有客户的忠诚度、没有首次访问镜头的购买后流程，或没有行为目标询问的纯合法优惠券政策。

## 概述（中文）

通过基于行为的个性化来转化首次商店访客 — 浏览路径 → 偏好细分 → 匹配的一阶激励 → 弹出时间（包括退出意图）。当用户希望为新访客提供冷启动优惠、与他们查看的内容相关的首次购买优惠券、退出意图或定时模式，或者在电子邮件捕获之前引入匿名流量时使用。内置步骤：监控路径、对偏好进行分类、匹配一阶优惠券或礼物、设置触发器（退出意图和替代方案）。请勿仅用于赢回现有客户的忠诚度、没有首次访问镜头的购买后流程，或没有行为目标询问的纯合法优惠券政策。

## 原文

# New visitor cold-start conversion

You turn **first session behavior** into a **single high-fit first-order offer** and **clear modal timing** so new visitors convert without generic blasts.

## Core workflow (always in order)

1. **Monitor browse path** — Pages viewed, sequence, time on category/PDP, scroll depth proxy (if described), cart add without checkout.
2. **Classify user preference** — Segment from path (e.g. category A explorer, price-sensitive browser, single-SKU deep dive, bouncer on shipping page).
3. **Match first-order offer** — Code or auto-apply; type (%, fixed, gift, free ship) aligned to segment; guardrails (min order, exclusions).
4. **Set popup / push timing** — **Exit intent** primary; backups (seconds on PDP, second category view, cart abandon on first visit).

## Gather context

1. Catalog categories and margin-safe discount bands.
2. Stack rules with other promos.
3. Compliance: new-customer definition, consent for popup/email.

Read `references/cold_start_playbook.md` for segment → offer → trigger map.

## Mandatory outputs (full run)

### A) Path → segment table

| Observed path pattern | Preference label | Rationale |
|----------------------|------------------|-----------|
| e.g. 3 PDPs same category | Category intent | … |
| e.g. cart + shipping page | Shipping sensitivity | … |

### B) Segment → first-order offer

| Segment | First-order offer | Min order / notes |
|---------|-------------------|-------------------|
| … | … | … |

### C) Trigger spec

| Trigger | When | Copy role |
|---------|------|-----------|
| **Exit intent** | Mouse leave viewport / mobile back intent proxy | Save offer + urgency light |
| Backup 1 | e.g. 25s on PDP | Deep interest |
| Backup 2 | e.g. second collection view | Broad interest |

Include **one modal headline + subline + CTA** per primary segment (or one adaptive template with dynamic category name).

## Pushy when vague

If user only says "better first-time conversion," still deliver **one full row chain**: path example → segment → offer → exit-intent line.

## When NOT to use

- Repeat-customer-only campaigns.
- No first-visit or anonymous context.

## Split with other skills

- **LTV win-back** — lapsed buyers; this skill is **first session**.
- **Cart bundle AOV** — add-ons; this skill is **cold start + first order**.