senior-pm

企业软件、SaaS 和数字化转型项目的高级项目经理。专注于投资组合管理、定量风险分析、资源优化、利益相关者协调和执行报告。使用先进的方法，包括 EMV 分析、蒙特卡罗模拟、WSJF 优先级排序和多维健康评分。当用户需要项目计划、项目状态报告、风险评估、资源分配、项目路线图、里程碑跟踪、团队能力规划、项目组合运行状况审查、计划管理或执行级项目报告方面的帮助时使用，特别是对于具有多个工作流、复杂依赖关系或数百万美元预算的企业规模计划。

## 概述（中文）

企业软件、SaaS 和数字化转型项目的高级项目经理。专注于投资组合管理、定量风险分析、资源优化、利益相关者协调和执行报告。使用先进的方法，包括 EMV 分析、蒙特卡罗模拟、WSJF 优先级排序和多维健康评分。当用户需要项目计划、项目状态报告、风险评估、资源分配、项目路线图、里程碑跟踪、团队能力规划、项目组合运行状况审查、计划管理或执行级项目报告方面的帮助时使用，特别是对于具有多个工作流、复杂依赖关系或数百万美元预算的企业规模计划。

## 原文

# Senior Project Management Expert

## Overview

Strategic project management for enterprise software, SaaS, and digital transformation initiatives. Provides portfolio management capabilities, quantitative analysis tools, and executive-level reporting frameworks for complex, multi-project portfolios.

### Core Expertise Areas

**Portfolio Management & Strategic Alignment**
- Multi-project portfolio optimization using advanced prioritization models (WSJF, RICE, ICE, MoSCoW)
- Strategic roadmap development aligned with business objectives and market conditions
- Resource capacity planning and allocation optimization across portfolio
- Portfolio health monitoring with multi-dimensional scoring frameworks

**Quantitative Risk Management**
- Expected Monetary Value (EMV) analysis for financial risk quantification
- Monte Carlo simulation for schedule risk modeling and confidence intervals
- Risk appetite framework implementation with enterprise-level thresholds
- Portfolio risk correlation analysis and diversification strategies

**Executive Communication & Governance**
- Board-ready executive reports with RAG status and strategic recommendations
- Stakeholder alignment through sophisticated RACI matrices and escalation paths
- Financial performance tracking with risk-adjusted ROI and NPV calculations
- Change management strategies for large-scale digital transformations

## Methodology & Frameworks

### Three-Tier Analysis Approach

**Tier 1: Portfolio Health Assessment**
Uses `project_health_dashboard.py` to provide comprehensive multi-dimensional scoring:

```bash
python3 scripts/project_health_dashboard.py assets/sample_project_data.json
```

**Health Dimensions (Weighted Scoring):**
- **Timeline Performance** (25% weight): Schedule adherence, milestone achievement, critical path analysis
- **Budget Management** (25% weight): Spend variance, forecast accuracy, cost efficiency metrics
- **Scope Delivery** (20% weight): Feature completion rates, requirement satisfaction, change control
- **Quality Metrics** (20% weight): Code coverage, defect density, technical debt, security posture
- **Risk Exposure** (10% weight): Risk score, mitigation effectiveness, exposure trends

**RAG Status Calculation:**
- 🟢 Green: Composite score >80, all dimensions >60
- 🟡 Amber: Composite score 60-80, or any dimension 40-60
- 🔴 Red: Composite score <60, or any dimension <40

**Tier 2: Risk Matrix & Mitigation Strategy**
Leverages `risk_matrix_analyzer.py` for quantitative risk assessment:

```bash
python3 scripts/risk_matrix_analyzer.py assets/sample_project_data.json
```

**Risk Quantification Process:**
1. **Probability Assessment** (1-5 scale): Historical data, expert judgment, Monte Carlo inputs
2. **Impact Analysis** (1-5 scale): Financial, schedule, quality, and strategic impact vectors
3. **Category Weighting**: Technical (1.2x), Resource (1.1x), Financial (1.4x), Schedule (1.0x)
4. **EMV Calculation**:

```python
# EMV and risk-adjusted budget calculation
def calculate_emv(risks):
    category_weights = {"Technical": 1.2, "Resource": 1.1, "Financial": 1.4, "Schedule": 1.0}
    total_emv = 0
    for risk in risks:
        score = risk["probability"] * risk["impact"] * category_weights[risk["category"]]
        emv = risk["probability"] * risk["financial_impact"]
        total_emv += emv
        risk["score"] = score
    return total_emv

def risk_adjusted_budget(base_budget, portfolio_risk_score, risk_tolerance_factor):
    risk_premium = portfolio_risk_score * risk_tolerance_factor
    return base_budget * (1 + risk_premium)
```

**Risk Response Strategies (by score threshold):**
- **Avoid** (>18): Eliminate through scope/approach changes
- **Mitigate** (12-18): Reduce probability or impact through active intervention
- **Transfer** (8-12): Insurance, contracts, partnerships
- **Accept** (<8): Monitor with contingency planning

**Tier 3: Resource Capacity Optimization**
Employs `resource_capacity_planner.py` for portfolio resource analysis:

```bash
python3 scripts/resource_capacity_planner.py assets/sample_project_data.json
```

**Capacity Analysis Framework:**
- **Utilization Optimization**: Target 70-85% for sustainable productivity
- **Skill Matching**: Algorithm-based resource allocation to maximize efficiency
- **Bottleneck Identification**: Critical path resource constraints across portfolio
- **Scenario Planning**: What-if analysis for resource reallocation strategies

### Advanced Prioritization Models

Apply each model in the specific context where it provides the most signal:

**Weighted Shortest Job First (WSJF)** — Resource-constrained agile portfolios with quantifiable cost-of-delay
```python
def wsjf(user_value, time_criticality, risk_reduction, job_size):
    return (user_value + time_criticality + risk_reduction) / job_size
```

**RICE** — Customer-facing initiatives where reach metrics are quantifiable
```python
def rice(reach, impact, confidence_pct, effort_person_months):
    return (reach * impact * (confidence_pct / 100)) / effort_person_months
```

**ICE** — Rapid prioritization during brainstorming or when analysis time is limited
```python
def ice(impact, confidence, ease):
    return (impact + confidence + ease) / 3
```

**Model Selection — Use this decision logic:**
```
if resource_constrained and agile_methodology and cost_of_delay_quantifiable:
    → WSJF
elif customer_facing and reach_metrics_available:
    → RICE
elif quick_prioritization_needed or ideation_phase:
    → ICE
elif multiple_stakeholder_groups_with_differing_priorities:
    → MoSCoW
elif complex_tradeoffs_across_incommensurable_criteria:
    → Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA)
```

Reference: `references/portfolio-prioritization-models.md`

### Risk Management Framework

Reference: `references/risk-management-framework.md`

**Step 1: Risk Classification by Category**
- Technical: Architecture, integration, performance
- Resource: Availability, skills, retention
- Schedule: Dependencies, critical path, external factors
- Financial: Budget overruns, currency, economic factors
- Business: Market changes, competitive pressure, strategic shifts

**Step 2: Three-Point Estimation for Monte Carlo Inputs**
```python
def three_point_estimate(optimistic, most_likely, pessimistic):
    expected = (optimistic + 4 * most_likely + pessimistic) / 6
    std_dev = (pessimistic - optimistic) / 6
    return expected, std_dev
```

**Step 3: Portfolio Risk Correlation**
```python
import math

def portfolio_risk(individual_risks, correlations):
    # individual_risks: list of risk EMV values
    # correlations: list of (i, j, corr_coefficient) tuples
    sum_sq = sum(r**2 for r in individual_risks)
    sum_corr = sum(2 * c * individual_risks[i] * individual_risks[j]
                   for i, j, c in correlations)
    return math.sqrt(sum_sq + sum_corr)
```

**Risk Appetite Framework:**
- **Conservative**: Risk scores 0-8, 25-30% contingency reserves
- **Moderate**: Risk scores 8-15, 15-20% contingency reserves
- **Aggressive**: Risk scores 15+, 10-15% contingency reserves

## Assets & Templates

### Project Charter Template
Reference: `assets/project_charter_template.md`

**Comprehensive 12-section charter including:**
- Executive summary with strategic alignment
- Success criteria with KPIs and quality gates
- RACI matrix with decision authority levels
- Risk assessment with mitigation strategies
- Budget breakdown with contingency analysis
- Timeline with critical path dependencies

### Executive Report Template
Reference: `assets/executive_report_template.md`

**Board-level portfolio reporting with:**
- RAG status dashboard with trend analysis
- Financial performance vs. strategic objectives
- Risk heat map with mitigation status
- Resource utiliza