financial-analyst

执行财务比率分析、DCF 评估、预算差异分析和滚动预测构建以进行战略决策。在分析财务报表、构建估值模型、评估预算差异或构建财务预测和预测时使用。当用户提及财务建模、现金流分析、公司估值、财务预测或电子表格分析时也适用。

# Financial Analyst Skill

## Overview

Production-ready financial analysis toolkit providing ratio analysis, DCF valuation, budget variance analysis, and rolling forecast construction. Designed for financial modeling, forecasting & budgeting, management reporting, business performance analysis, and investment analysis.

## 5-Phase Workflow

### Phase 1: Scoping
- Define analysis objectives and stakeholder requirements
- Identify data sources and time periods
- Establish materiality thresholds and accuracy targets
- Select appropriate analytical frameworks

### Phase 2: Data Analysis & Modeling
- Collect and validate financial data (income statement, balance sheet, cash flow)
- **Validate input data completeness** before running ratio calculations (check for missing fields, nulls, or implausible values)
- Calculate financial ratios across 5 categories (profitability, liquidity, leverage, efficiency, valuation)
- Build DCF models with WACC and terminal value calculations; **cross-check DCF outputs against sanity bounds** (e.g., implied multiples vs. comparables)
- Construct budget variance analyses with favorable/unfavorable classification
- Develop driver-based forecasts with scenario modeling

### Phase 3: Insight Generation
- Interpret ratio trends and benchmark against industry standards
- Identify material variances and root causes
- Assess valuation ranges through sensitivity analysis
- Evaluate forecast scenarios (base/bull/bear) for decision support

### Phase 4: Reporting
- Generate executive summaries with key findings
- Produce detailed variance reports by department and category
- Deliver DCF valuation reports with sensitivity tables
- Present rolling forecasts with trend analysis

### Phase 5: Follow-up
- Track forecast accuracy (target: +/-5% revenue, +/-3% expenses)
- Monitor report delivery timeliness (target: 100% on time)
- Update models with actuals as they become available
- Refine assumptions based on variance analysis

## Tools

### 1. Ratio Calculator (`scripts/ratio_calculator.py`)

Calculate and interpret financial ratios from financial statement data.

**Ratio Categories:**
- **Profitability:** ROE, ROA, Gross Margin, Operating Margin, Net Margin
- **Liquidity:** Current Ratio, Quick Ratio, Cash Ratio
- **Leverage:** Debt-to-Equity, Interest Coverage, DSCR
- **Efficiency:** Asset Turnover, Inventory Turnover, Receivables Turnover, DSO
- **Valuation:** P/E, P/B, P/S, EV/EBITDA, PEG Ratio

```bash
python scripts/ratio_calculator.py sample_financial_data.json
python scripts/ratio_calculator.py sample_financial_data.json --format json
python scripts/ratio_calculator.py sample_financial_data.json --category profitability
```

### 2. DCF Valuation (`scripts/dcf_valuation.py`)

Discounted Cash Flow enterprise and equity valuation with sensitivity analysis.

**Features:**
- WACC calculation via CAPM
- Revenue and free cash flow projections (5-year default)
- Terminal value via perpetuity growth and exit multiple methods
- Enterprise value and equity value derivation
- Two-way sensitivity analysis (discount rate vs growth rate)

```bash
python scripts/dcf_valuation.py valuation_data.json
python scripts/dcf_valuation.py valuation_data.json --format json
python scripts/dcf_valuation.py valuation_data.json --projection-years 7
```

### 3. Budget Variance Analyzer (`scripts/budget_variance_analyzer.py`)

Analyze actual vs budget vs prior year performance with materiality filtering.

**Features:**
- Dollar and percentage variance calculation
- Materiality threshold filtering (default: 10% or $50K)
- Favorable/unfavorable classification with revenue/expense logic
- Department and category breakdown
- Executive summary generation

```bash
python scripts/budget_variance_analyzer.py budget_data.json
python scripts/budget_variance_analyzer.py budget_data.json --format json
python scripts/budget_variance_analyzer.py budget_data.json --threshold-pct 5 --threshold-amt 25000
```

### 4. Forecast Builder (`scripts/forecast_builder.py`)

Driver-based revenue forecasting with rolling cash flow projection and scenario modeling.

**Features:**
- Driver-based revenue forecast model
- 13-week rolling cash flow projection
- Scenario modeling (base/bull/bear cases)
- Trend analysis using simple linear regression (standard library)

```bash
python scripts/forecast_builder.py forecast_data.json
python scripts/forecast_builder.py forecast_data.json --format json
python scripts/forecast_builder.py forecast_data.json --scenarios base,bull,bear
```

## Knowledge Bases

| Reference | Purpose |
|-----------|---------|
| `references/financial-ratios-guide.md` | Ratio formulas, interpretation, industry benchmarks |
| `references/valuation-methodology.md` | DCF methodology, WACC, terminal value, comps |
| `references/forecasting-best-practices.md` | Driver-based forecasting, rolling forecasts, accuracy |
| `references/industry-adaptations.md` | Sector-specific metrics and considerations (SaaS, Retail, Manufacturing, Financial Services, Healthcare) |

## Templates

| Template | Purpose |
|----------|---------|
| `assets/variance_report_template.md` | Budget variance report template |
| `assets/dcf_analysis_template.md` | DCF valuation analysis template |
| `assets/forecast_report_template.md` | Revenue forecast report template |

## Key Metrics & Targets

| Metric | Target |
|--------|--------|
| Forecast accuracy (revenue) | +/-5% |
| Forecast accuracy (expenses) | +/-3% |
| Report delivery | 100% on time |
| Model documentation | Complete for all assumptions |
| Variance explanation | 100% of material variances |

## Input Data Format

All scripts accept JSON input files. See `assets/sample_financial_data.json` for the complete input schema covering all four tools.

## Dependencies

**None** - All scripts use Python standard library only (`math`, `statistics`, `json`, `argparse`, `datetime`). No numpy, pandas, or scipy required.

---

## 中文说明

# Financial Analyst Skill

## 概述

生产就绪的财务分析工具集，提供比率分析、DCF 估值、预算差异分析和滚动预测构建。专为财务建模、预测与预算编制、管理报告、业务绩效分析和投资分析而设计。

## 五阶段工作流

### 阶段 1：范围界定
- 定义分析目标和利益相关方需求
- 确定数据来源和时间区间
- 建立重要性阈值和准确性目标
- 选择合适的分析框架

### 阶段 2：数据分析与建模
- 收集并验证财务数据（利润表、资产负债表、现金流量表）
- 在运行比率计算之前**验证输入数据的完整性**（检查缺失字段、空值或不合理的数值）
- 计算 5 大类财务比率（盈利能力、流动性、杠杆、运营效率、估值）
- 构建带 WACC 和终值计算的 DCF 模型；**将 DCF 输出与合理性边界交叉核对**（例如，隐含倍数 vs. 可比公司）
- 构建带有利/不利分类的预算差异分析
- 开发基于驱动因素的预测并进行情景建模

### 阶段 3：洞察生成
- 解读比率趋势并对标行业标准
- 识别重大差异及其根本原因
- 通过敏感性分析评估估值区间
- 评估预测情景（基准/乐观/悲观）以支持决策

### 阶段 4：报告
- 生成包含关键发现的执行摘要
- 按部门和类别生成详细的差异报告
- 交付带敏感性表的 DCF 估值报告
- 呈现带趋势分析的滚动预测

### 阶段 5：后续跟进
- 跟踪预测准确性（目标：营收 +/-5%，费用 +/-3%）
- 监控报告交付及时性（目标：100% 准时）
- 随实际数据可用而更新模型
- 基于差异分析优化假设

## 工具

### 1. 比率计算器（`scripts/ratio_calculator.py`）

从财务报表数据计算并解读财务比率。

**比率类别：**
- **盈利能力：** ROE、ROA、毛利率、营业利润率、净利率
- **流动性：** 流动比率、速动比率、现金比率
- **杠杆：** 资产负债率、利息保障倍数、DSCR
- **运营效率：** 资产周转率、存货周转率、应收账款周转率、DSO
- **估值：** P/E、P/B、P/S、EV/EBITDA、PEG 比率

```bash
python scripts/ratio_calculator.py sample_financial_data.json
python scripts/ratio_calculator.py sample_financial_data.json --format json
python scripts/ratio_calculator.py sample_financial_data.json --category profitability
```

### 2. DCF 估值（`scripts/dcf_valuation.py`）

带敏感性分析的现金流折现企业价值与股权价值估值。

**功能：**
- 通过 CAPM 计算 WACC
- 营收和自由现金流预测（默认 5 年）
- 通过永续增长法和退出倍数法计算终值
- 企业价值和股权价值推导
- 双向敏感性分析（折现率 vs 增长率）

```bash
python scripts/dcf_valuation.py valuation_data.json
python scripts/dcf_valuation.py valuation_data.json --format json
python scripts/dcf_valuation.py valuation_data.json --projection-years 7
```

### 3. 预算差异分析器（`scripts/budget_variance_analyzer.py`）

分析实际 vs 预算 vs 上年度的绩效，并进行重要性筛选。

**功能：**
- 金额和百分比差异计算
- 重要性阈值筛选（默认：10% 或 $50K）
- 带营收/费用逻辑的有利/不利分类
- 部门和类别细分
- 执行摘要生成

```bash
python scripts/budget_variance_analyzer.py budget_data.json
python scripts/budget_variance_analyzer.py budget_data.json --format json
python scripts/budget_variance_analyzer.py budget_data.json --threshold-pct 5 --threshold-amt 25000
```

### 4. 预测构建器（`scripts/forecast_builder.py`）

基于驱动因素的营收预测，带滚动现金流预测和情景建模。

**功能：**
- 基于